DAX Report – The week ahead – 2nd May to the 6th May 2016

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)

Monday 2nd May 

2.45am – China Caixin mfg PMI (April): expected to fall to 49.5 from 49.7.

8.55am – German Manufacturing (April) : 51.9 forecast vs 51.9 previous

9am – Eurozone Manufacturing (April) : 51.5 forecast vs 51.5 previous

3pm – ECB President Draghi speaks

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): forecast to fall to 51.5 from 51.8.

Tuesday 3rd May

Earnings : BMW Q1 2016 / Fresnius SE Q1 2016 / Infineon Technologie Interim 2016 / Lufthansa Q1 2016

5.30am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to stay at 2%, although there is a growing caucus that thinks a cut might be on the way.

9.30am – UK mfg PMI (April): activity is expected to increase, with the PMI number rising to 51.2 from 51.

10am – Eurozone PPI : (MoM)(March) -0.1% forecast vs -0.7% previous / (YoY) (March) -4.3% forecast vs -4.2% previous

Wednesday 4th May

Earnings : Siemens Interim 2016 / Deutsche Telecom Q1 2016 / Continental Q1 2016 / Adidas Q1 2016 / Beiersdorf Q1 2016 / Heidelbergcement Q1 2016

2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (April): activity forecast to fall, as the index drops to 51.2 from 52.2.

8.55am – German Composite PMI (April) : 53.8 forecast vs 53.8 prior

8.55am – German Services PMI (April) : 54.6 forecast vs 54.6 prior

9am – Eurozone Market Composite PMI (April) : 53.0 forecast vs 53.0 prior

9am – Eurozone Services PMI (April) : 53.2 forecast vs 53.2 prior

10am – Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (March) : -0.1% forecast vs 0.2% prior / (YoY) (March) 2.4% forecast vs 2.4% prior

1.15pm – US ADP employment numbers (April): 194K jobs expected to have been created, up from 200K last month. 9.30am – UK construction PMI (April): this, the least important of the UK PMI readings, is expected to see activity weaken slightly, with the index falling to 54 from 54.2.

1.30pm – US trade balance (March): deficit forecast to increase to $47.2 billion, from $47 billion in February.

3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (April): expected to remain at 54.5 for the month.

3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories change: stockpiles expected to rise by 200,000, down from the 2 million increase of a week earlier.

Thursday 5th May

2.30am – Australia trade balance (March): deficit expected to narrow to A$3.3 billion from A$3.4 billion.

9.30am – UK services PMI (April): growth in the sector expected to be weaker, with the index falling to 53.2 from 53.7.

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to be 259K for the week, up from 257K in the preceding week.

Friday 6th May 

1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (April): 203K jobs expected to have been created, down from 215K last month, while the unemployment rate remains at 5%. Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3%, in line with the previous month. 

1.30pm – Canada employment data (April): unemployment rate expected to remain at 7.1%.

 

We have a slew of economic data this week with PMI numbers from Germany, UK, the Eurozone plus Chinese PMI figures. Then on Friday we have the US non-farm payrolls, a primary indicator and barometer of the current state of U.S. economic strength.

 

Last week markets were knocked back by the comments from the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold fire at its most recent meeting.  Looking first at a Daily chart of the DAX below, the market continued its pull back from the recent highs of 10525 set in the week previous.  On Friday, the index fell below the Daily 200 Moving Average (green line in the chart below) with price hitting resistance into the 50% Fib level of Nov15/Feb16 of 10064, finding support at 10026.  The price is now between the Daily 200 MA and Daily 100 MA (blue line in the chart below).  Market bias is now into a neutral zone, Bullish above the Daily 200 MA and Bearish below the Daily 100 MA.  Keep an eye on these levels in the days ahead.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Daily chart on the 2nd Mayl 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the Hourly chart of the DAX below, one can see the 10116/10097 zone was finally breached in Friday’s trading.  This zone was strong resistance for Bulls during the month of March, with Bulls finally managing to break through this area on the 18th April. However on Friday this zone was breached with price finding support at 10026.

(click to enlarge)

 

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Hourly chart on the 2nd May 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull targets :-

  • 10116
  • 10174 (Weekly Pivot)
  • Daily 200 MA
  • Hourly 100 MA
  • Hourly 200 MA
  • 10321 (Weekly R1 Pivot)
  • 10359/10323 zone
  • 10387
  • 10474
  • 10525
  • 10549
  • 10576 (Weekly R2 Pivot)
  • 10723 (Weekly R3 Pivot)

 

Bear targets :-

  • Daily 100 MA
  • 9983
  • 9918 (Weekly S1 Pivot)
  • 9868/9841 zone
  • 9855
  • 9772 (Weekly S2 Pivot)
  • 9745/9722 zone
  • 9630/9612 zone
  • 9516 (Weekly S3 Pivot)
  • 9440

 

For Bears, price needs to stay below the 10116/10097 zone, the Hourly 100 + 200 MAs.  The line in the sand will be 10525.

For Bulls, price needs to reclaim the Daily 200 MA to the upside. Expect to see Bullish support if price continues lower into the  50% level from April’s surge in price at 9983.    The line in the sand for Bulls this week will be the Daily 100 MA.

 

And remember…

‘Define your risk to limit your risk to keep skin in the game!’
Dan Shiel
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