Yesterday Greece missed the deadline for a €1.5 Billion payment, making it the first advanced economy to be in arrears to the IMF.
There is a possibility Greece will be granted emergency aid from the ECB and is waiting to hear back after a conference call involving the ECB & Eurogroup later today. Reports are circling that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would be willing to scrap the referendum to receive a new two-year loan agreement – see full article here
Let’s have a look at the Daily chart of the DAX below to put the Greek crisis into some sort of perspective. There are three price areas to watch in the days ahead :-
1. Firstly you will observe, the DAX is in a long-term bull market, and price is still above it’s Daily 200 moving average (green line in the chart below). Note the upwards trendline which has been in place since October last year. This line was broken at the beginning of June and price has since failed to reclaim this trendline on three occasions – all occurring last week.
2. Next, note the downwards trendline which has been in place since April this year. This trendline was also tested last week, with price failing to close above.
3. Finally, bulls can find some solace as the 38.2% retracement in price from the lows of Oct 2014 – April 2015, coming in at 10857 have yet to be broken on the Daily chart. Also watch this level as an area for bulls to lean against if price retests it in the days ahead.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at the Hourly chart of the DAX below, one can see the 10892/10856 area continued to hold in trading yesterday. Price did indeed break up through the 11018/11986 zone but fell back later in the day after news of Greece seeking additional support broke. Price reclaimed this zone in trading today, successfully holding so far against the 10986 level. After surging to the upside it met resistance against the Hourly 100 MA (blue line).
(click to enlarge)
CONCLUSION – BULLISH
For bulls, price needs to stay above 10986 in trading today. Risk averse traders can lean against the 11174 level on a break & close above the Hourly 100 MA.
For bears, price needs to get below the 10986 level. For risk averse, 10856 needs to be taken out.
Bearish targets :-
- 10986 (Key zone + close to daily low)
- 10856 (Key zone + Daily 38.2% level)
- 10798 (June lows)
Bullish targets :-
- Hourly 200 MA
- 11328/11316 zone
- 11374 (Daily S3 Pivot)