The DAX has managed to break through 11400 in trading today, but as expected not with much gusto (see earlier post http://theshielreport.com/2015/02/28/dax-intraday-levels). It slammed on the brakes at the 11450 level topping at 11454 before falling over. With stronger than expected data out of Germany with the German Manufacturing PMI coming in at 51.1 vs an expected 50.9, the price has still managed to drift lower.
Looking at the chart below, the price regularly bounced into the 50% retracement of the move up from the London open. That level comes in at 11425. Price finally pierced this level and subsequently the 5min 100 and 200 ma (blue and green lines in the chart below), putting the bears in charge.
If the price can break and hold the 11380 – 11376 level, then the bears could be looking for a target today in around the 11300 level, which was a strong floor of support in Friday’s trading. Also, the average trading range over the last 22 days is 158 pips, which also means a target of 11295.
If price rotates back to the upside, breaks and closes above the 100 ma, I would expect the 11454 level to be attacked aggressively. If that level is broken, look for a surge higher to 11500 and 11524 in trading today.