ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)
Monday 7 March
7am – Germany factory orders (January): factory orders are tipped to increase to -0.2% from -0.7%.
5pm – Fed member Lael Brainard is speaking in Washington DC.
5.30pm – Fed member Stanley Fischer is speaking in Washington DC.
11.20pm – RBA deputy governor Philip Loew is speaking in Adelaide.
11.50pm – Japan GDP (Q4, final): MoM expected -0.4%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected -1.4%, prior 1.3%.
Tuesday 8 March
2am – China trade balance (February): the forecast is for the trade surplus to drop to $45 billion from $63.30
5am – Japan consumer confidence (February): consumer confidence is expected to increase to 42.7 from 42.5
7am – Germany Industrial Production MoM Jan forecast to increase to 0.7% from -1.2%
MERCK KGAA 03/08 FY 2015 Earnings Release 1am / Earnings Call 8am / Index Weighting 1.31%
RWE AG 03/08 FY 2015 Earnings Release 1am / Earnings Call 6:30am / 0.66% Index Weighting
9.15am – BoE governor Mark Carney and deputy governor Jon Cunliffe are speaking.
10am – eurozone GDP (Q4, second estimate): QoQ expected 0.3%, prior 0.3%. YoY expected 1.5%, prior 1.6%
11.30pm – Australia Westpac confidence index (March): it is tipped to fall from 101.3 to 100.8
Wednesday 9 March
DEUTSCHE POST AG 03/09 FY 2015 Earnings Release 1am / Earnings Call 8am / 2.85% Index Weighting
DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA A.. 03/09 Sales and Revenue Release / 0.68% Index Weighting
9.30am – UK manufacturing production (January) and industrial production (January): manufacturing production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -0.2%. YoY expected 0.6%, prior -1.7%. industrial production: MoM expected 0.2%, prior -1.1%, YoY expected -0.3%, prior -0.4%
3pm – UK NIESR GDP estimate (three months, February): prior 0.4%
3pm – Bank of Canada interest rate decision and statement. rates are tipped to remain at 0.5%
3.30pm – US oil inventories: stockpiles are tipped to fall to 0.8 million barrels from 10.4 million barrels
8pm – Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision and statement.rates are anticipated to remain at 2.5%
Thursday 10 March
1.30am – China CPI (February) and PPI (February): CPI is tipped to rise from 0.5% to 0.6% on a MoM basis and increase to 1.9% from 1.8% on a YoY basis. PPI is forecast to increase from -5.3% to -4.9% on a YoY basis
7am – Germany Balance of Trade for January Forecast €21.8Bn from €18.8Bn
LINDE AG 03/10 FY 2015 Earnings Release 1:30am / Earnings Call 8am / 3.14% Index Weighting
12.45pm – ECB interest rate decision: the forecast is for the base rate to remain at 0.05% and the deposit facility rate to be cut from -0.3% to -0.4%. The stimulus package is expected to be increased from €60 billion per month to €70 billion per month. Press conference follows at 1.30pm
1.30pm – US jobless claims: jobless claims is anticipated to fall by 2,000 to 276,000
9.15pm – Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is speaking in Ottawa.
Friday 11 March
7am – German CPI (February, final): MoM expected -0.8%, prior 0.4%, YoY expected 0.0%, prior 0.5%
9.30am – UK trade balance (January): the trade deficit is expected to expand to £2.8 billion from £2.7 billion
1.30pm – Canada employment change (February) and unemployment rate (February): the employment change is tipped to rise by 11,700 and that compares with a decline of 5,700 in January. Unemployment is anticipated to remain at 7.2%
In European Equity Markets stocks rose on Friday after strong U.S jobs data eased concerns of a possible recession in the world’s largest economy but a fall in U.S. wages in February overshadowed strong jobs growth and supported views that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to hike interest rates. The DAX initially rallied off the report, hit my target call to the pip from last Sunday’s report of 9899 only to roll over. However the DAX has had strong support at the 9740-9745 area as the 9742 level is the 38% Fib pullback from Nov 15 high – Feb 16 low. These Fib levels will be important points to watch this week, especially on Thursday with the ECB Press Conference.
Looking at an Hourly chart of the DAX below, you will see yellow zones. I mark these to identify key profit taking levels for either shorting or going long depending which way the market is going. You will notice the 9745/9720 zone is now big support for Bulls. As aforementioned, the 9742 is the 38% Fib level, below that we have the Hourly 100 MA (blue line in the chart below) currently at 9706 and then the 9693 level which was the low on Wednesday. So Bears have strong resistance up ahead from 9745 through to 9693.
(click to enlarge)
Bull Targets for the week ahead :-
- 9899 – 61.8% pullback from Oct 14 low – Apr 15 high
- 9926 – Weekly high 24th Jan 16
- 10016 – Weekly R1 Pivot
- 10064 – 50% pullback from Nov 15 high – Feb 16 low
- Daily 100 MA – currently 10224
- 10242 – Weekly R2 Pivot
- Weekly 100 MA – currently 10302
- Daily 200 MA – currently 10498
- 10379 – 50% pullback from Oct 14 low – Apr 15 high
- 10387 – 61.8% pullback from Nov 15 high – Feb 16 low
Bear Targets for the week ahead :-
- 9745/9720 zone
- 9742 – 38% pullback from Nov 15 high – Feb 16 low
- 9693
- 9674 – Weekly Pivot
- 9630/9612 zone
- 9586/9575 zone
- 9469/9458 zone
- 9448 – Weekly S1 Pivot
- 9433/9425 zone
- 9384
- 9352
- 9320 – Weekly Pivot
- 9276/9228 zone
- 9123/9078 zone
- Weekly 200 MA – currently 9128
- 9106 – Weekly S2 Pivot
- 8993
- 8919/8846 zone
- 8697 – Feb 16 low
The question is will this Bullish market bias seen over the last few weeks remain intact this week with Super Mario expected to throw more cash into the QE bonfire, or has the market already priced this in? Time will tell.
Traders should also pay attention to what happens with the ECB Deposit Facility Rate. If forecasts are correct and they move further into negative territory, this in turn means that banks have to pay even more in order to deposit their surplus liquidity with the Central Bank. Result? That cash then flows into the Capital Markets. It’s a sneaky way for a central bank to harness the effects that QE has on markets without actually implementing QE.
Good fortune in your trading for the week ahead – it’s going to be a volatile one on Thursday!
And remember…
‘Define your risk to limit your risk to keep skin in the game!’
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