DAX Report – The week ahead – 29th March to 1st April 2016

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)

 

Tuesday 29th March
12.30am – Japan unemployment rate (February): the jobless rate is expected to hold at 3.2%, the same as last month.
3:30pm – Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks
5pm – Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan
 Wednesday 30 March
1pm – German CPI (March, preliminary): price growth forecast to be 0.2% YoY & 0.5% MoM in this first estimate.
1.15pm – US ADP employment change (March): 191,000 jobs are expected to have been created, down from 214K in the February reading.
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories: stockpiles of crude oil are expected to rise by 1.4 million barrels, after a huge increase of over 9 million in the preceding week. Gasoline inventories forecast to fall by 1.6 million barrels, from a 4.6 million barrel drop in the previous reading.
5pm – Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
 Thursday 31 March
7am – German Retail Sales : expected to rise (YoY) (Feb), 1.9% vs -0.8% while the (MoM) number is expected to decrease slightly to 0.3% from 0.7% 
8.55am – German unemployment (March): the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.3% from 6.2%, while the number of Germans out of work falls by 10,000, after an 11,000 drop in February.
9.30am – UK GDP growth (Q4, final): growth is expected to be revised up to 0.5% from 0.4% QoQ and down to 1.9% from 2.1% YoY.
10am – Eurozone inflation (March, preliminary): expected to fall by 0.1% YoY, while core price growth holds steady at 0.8%.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: 269,000 claims expected for the previous week.
1:30pm – Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
9pm – New York Fed President Bill Dudley
 Friday 1 April
12.50am – Japan Tankan mfg index (Q1): the index is forecast to slow to 11.5 from 12 in Q4 of 2015.
2.00 – 2.45am – China mfg & non-mfg PMI (March): this bonanza of China data sees official mfg and non-mfg emerge at 2am, with both index expected to post modest improvement, while the Caixin mfg PMI is forecast to rise to 48.6 from 48

8:55am – German Manufacturing PMI (March) forecast to decline to 50.4 from 50.5

9am – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (March) forecast to rise to 51.4 from 51.2
10am – eurozone unemployment (February): the unemployment rate is expected to move to 10.2% from 10.3%.
1pm – Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (March): 275K jobs are forecast for this reading, up from 242K in the previous month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%, from last month’s 0.1% drop.
3pm – US mfg PMI, Michigan confidence index (March, final): the last reading for March for the mfg PMI is expected to see the number revised to 51.4 from 51.3, while the Michigan confidence index is revised down to 90 from a previous estimate of 91.7.

Last week saw yet another lacklustre range in the German Index, moving only a total of 358 pips vs a weekly average of 534 pips.  On Thursday the Index sold off, as investors continued to exit positions after the attack in Brussels, being end of fiscal year and moving to cash ahead of the Easter weekend.

This coming week investors and traders alike will be closely anticipating the NFP number from the U.S. If final figures are inline with forecasts, it will send more signals to investors about the future direction of Fed rate intervention.  Last week saw more Hawkish comments from the U.S. central bank, stunting equity markets. However, in trading today saw weaker-than-expected consumer spending, as well as a downward adjustment to January’s numbers and weak readings for personal income and inflation, suggested the Fed may stay on hold through its next two meetings in April and June – see article here

Looking at a weekly chart of the DAX below, one can see price failed to break and close above the 50% Fib level (Nov15/Feb16) at 10064.  This will continue to be a line in the sand for the bears this week.  A break above this level and Bulls will take back full control of the market.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Weekly chart on the 28th March 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

In trading today, the DAX continued to move higher after finding support, yet again into the 9868/9841 zone late in Thursday’s session.  However, price failed to move above the 9940/9926 zone which is also the 38.2% Fib level from Wednesday’s high 10116 to Thursday’s low 9837 coming in at 9943.  This price was also into the Hourly 200 MA (green line in the chart below), a significant level which Bulls failed to reclaim after this area was broken early on Thursday.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Hourly chart on the 28th March 2016

 

 

 

 

 

Bull targets :-

  • Hourly 200 MA  (currently 9942)
  • 10040
  • 10069
  • 10090  (Weekly R1 Pivot)
  • 10097
  • Daily 100 MA  (currently 10115)
  • 10116
  • 10283  (Weekly R2 Pivot)
  • Weekly 100 MA  (currently 10322)
  • Daily 200 MA  (currently 10386)
  • 10387  (61.8% Fib Nov15/Feb16)

Bear targets :-

  • 9924  (Weekly Pivot)
  • 9826/9809 zone
  • 9741   (38.2% Fib level Nov15/Feb16)
  • 9756  (50% Fib level 10/23March)
  • 9732  (Weekly S1 Pivot)
  • 9693/9672 zone
  • 9630
  • 9592  (Market gap)
  • 9566  (Weekly S2 Pivot)

Ultimately, Bearish below the Hourly 200MA and Bullish above.

Line in the sand for Bears is the 10116 level.
Line in the sand for Bulls is the 9756/9741 zone.

 

And remember…

‘Define your risk to limit your risk to keep skin in the game!’
Dan Shiel
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