ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)
Monday 25th April8:15 am – ECB Constancio speaks9am – German IFO (April): expected to rise to 107 from 106.7.12:45pm – ECB Coeure speaks3pm – US new home sales (March): number of sales forecast to rise to an annual rate of 527K, from 512K in February.
Tuesday 26th April
BAYER AG – Q1 2016 Earnings release
8am – ECB Constancio speaks
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (March): headline reading forecast to rise by 1% from a 2.8% drop in February, while the number excluding transportation orders is expected to rise by 0.23% from a 1% drop last month.
2.45pm – US services PMI (April, flash): services sector growth expected to increase, with the index rising to 52.2 from 51.3.
Wednesday 27th April
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG – Q1 2016 Earnings release
2.30am – Australia inflation rate (Q1): expected to increase to 1.8% from 1.7% for the first quarter.
7am – German GfK consumer confidence (May): confidence forecast to rise to 9.5 from 9.4.
9.30am – UK GDP (Q1, first estimate): growth expected to slow to 0.5% QoQ from 0.6%, while YoY expected to hold steady at 2.1%.
3pm – US pending home sales (March): sales forecast to rise by 1.9% YoY, from 0.7% in February.
3.30pm – US crude inventories: forecast to rise by 1.1 million barrels, from a 2.08 million increase in the previous week.
7pm – FOMC rate decision: no change expected, but the statement will influence USD and indices, especially if it indicates a change in tone.
Thursday 28th April
DEUTSCHE BANK AG – Q1 2016 Earnings release
12.30am – Japan CPI (March): YoY rate expected to drop to 0.2% from 0.3%.
4am – BoJ interest rate decision: no change on rates expected but watch for comments about additional easing.
8.55am – German unemployment (April): the number of unemployed is expected to fall by 9000, while the rate holds at 6.2%.
10am – eurozone business confidence (April): forecast to rise to 0.17 from 0.11.
1pm – German inflation rate (April, preliminary): expected to increase to 0.4% from 0.3%.
1.30pm – US GDP (Q1, first estimate), initial jobless claims: growth expected to be 0.6%, down from 1.4% in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, jobless claims are expected to rise to 255K, after hitting 247K in the previous week, the lowest level since 1973.
Friday 29th April
BASF SE – Q1 2016 Earnings release
LINDE AG – Q1 2016 Earnings release
12.30am – Japan unemployment (March): the rate is forecast to remain at 3.3%.
6.30am – French GDP (Q1, first estimate): growth expected to be 0.3% QoQ, in line with the previous quarter, but drop to 1% YoY, down from 1.4% in Q1 of 2015.
7am – German Retail Sales : (YoY) (March) drop to 2% from 5.4% a year previous / (MoM) (March) 0.3% increase from a -0.4% reading the previous month
10am – eurozone unemployment (March): jobless rate forecast to remain at 10.3%.
2.45pm – US Chicago PMI (April): index of activity forecast to fall to 52 from 53.6 in March.
3pm – Michigan consumer confidence (April, final): confidence expected to drop to 89.7 from 91.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at a Weekly chart of the DAX below, you will see price moved to 10525 during trading last week, just 24 pips shy of the 50% Fib level from the all time high posted last year at 12401 to the low in February this year of 8696. If the market manages to hold and creep higher in the week ahead, this will be an area of resistance to note – 10549.
(click to enlarge)
Finally, looking at the Hourly chart of the DAX below, one can see when price managed to pierce through the 10116/10097 zone at the beginning of last week, the price didn’t look back. Price has also managed to stay above the Hourly 100 moving average (blue line in the chart below). Price then finally double topped into the 10525 area on Thursday and has been trickling down ever since.
(click to enlarge)
For Bulls, coming into Monday they will need to keep price above the Hourly 100 MA with support of the 10323 level below that. If that breaks looking for dip buyers into the Daily 200 MA currently at 10267. Below that, the Hourly 200 MA. The final line in the sand for Bulls this week will be the 10116/10097 zone.
For Bears, the Bullish buy zones mentioned in the paragraph above also serve as Bear targets. To the upside, price needs to remain below the 10525 level, with the line in the sand this week being the aforementioned 10549 price point.
Expect to see some volatility on Wednesday 7pm for the Fed’s FOMC announcement. Interest rates are expected to stay on hold, with gradual increases still on the horizon – but don’t rule out any surprises. Good fortune in your trading for the week ahead!
And remember…
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