ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)
Monday 9th May2.30am – Australia NAB Business confidence (April): index expected to fall to 5.4 from 6.
6am – Japan consumer confidence (April): confidence forecast to weaken slightly, with the index falling to 41.6 from 41.7.
7am – German factory orders (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% vs -1.2% previous
Tuesday 10th May
Earnings :- Munich RE, Thyssenkrupp
2.30am – China CPI (April): YoY price growth expected to be 1.9%, down from 2.3% a year earlier.
7am – German Industrial Production (MoM)(Mar) -0.3% forecast vs -0.5% previous
7am – German Trade Balance (Mar) 20.4 Bn forecast vs 19.8 Bn previous
9.30am – UK trade balance (March): trade deficit expected to narrow to £4.7 billion from £4.8 billion. ses
Wednesday 11th May
Earnings :- Allianz, Deutsche Post, E.ON, Deutsche Lufthansa
9.30am – UK industrial & mfg production (March): industrial output expected to fall by 0.8% YoY while manufacturing output rises 0.1% YoY.
3.30pm – US crude inventories: stockpiles expected to rise by 900,000 barrels, from a 2.8 million barrel increase a week earlier.
5.30pm – ECB’s Nowotny speaks
Thursday 12th May
Earnings :- Vonovia, RWE
7am – German WPI (MoM)(Mar) 0.2% forecast vs 0.3% previous
10am – Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM)(Mar) 0.1% forecast vs -0.8% previous
12pm – BoE rate decision, statement and inflation report: no change expected on the interest rate, or on the current 0/9 voting pattern. As usual, the statement will be the main event from the meeting, while the quarterly inflation report will also prove interesting, particularly if the bank downgrades its inflation forecast.
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: claims expected to be 269,000, from 274,000 a week earlier.
Friday 13th May
7am – German CPI (MoM) (April) -0.2% forecast vs -0.2% prior / (YoY)(April) 0.1% forecast vs 0.1% prior
7am – German GDP (Q1, first estimate): growth forecast to hold at 0.3% QoQ and fall to 1.9% from 2.1% YoY.
10am – eurozone GDP (Q1, first estimate): overall growth for the currency zone is expected to rise to 0.6% QoQ from 0.3%, and hold at 1.6% YoY.
1.30pm – US retail sales (April): sales forecast to rise 0.5% MoM, from a 0.4% drop in March.
3pm – US Michigan consumer sentiment (May, preliminary): the index is expected to rise to 91 from the final April reading of 89.
A shock to the system in trading last Friday when data out of the U.S. showed the Non-farm payrolls number much lower than expected coming in at 160,000 jobs added as opposed to the forecast of 202,000. This temporarily cast a shadow of doubt over the futures markets as to whether the Fed will even bother raising rates at all in 2016. However, these doubts were doused with comments from the NY Fed’s President William Dudley. In an interview with the New York Times on Friday he said,
“It’s a touch softer, maybe, than what people were expecting, but I wouldn’t put a lot of weight on it in terms of how it would affect my economic outlook,” Mr. Dudley added that it remained a “reasonable expectation” that the Fed would increase its benchmark interest rate two times this year.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at the Daily chart of the DAX below, one can see price continued it’s downward slide in trading last week but found some resistance coming into the 100 Daily moving average (blue line in the chart below). Price closed below this level on Wednesday & Thursday but managed to get back and close above this level on Friday. This will also be a key level in the week ahead.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at the Hourly chart of the DAX below, one will see price continued its slide lower last week bouncing off each of the key zones (yellow areas) eventually finding support into the 9745/9722 zone and shooting back to the upside. Bulls were eventually met with a ceiling of resistance into the Hourly 100 ma (blue line in the chart below)
(click to enlarge)
Bull targets :-
- 9935 – Weekly Pivot
- Hourly 100 MA
- 9983
- 10040/10026 zone
- 10111/10112
- 10140 – Weekly R1 Pivot
- Hourly 200 MA
- Daily 200 MA
- 10359 – Weekly R2 Pivot
- 10525
- 10562 – Weekly R3 Pivot
Bear targets :-
- Daily 100 MA
- 9731
- 9717 – Weekly S1 Pivot
- 9630/9612 zone
- 9513 – Weekly S2 Pivot
- 9440
For Bulls this week, price ideally needs to hold the 9745/9722 zone. If it can break above the Hourly 100 MA, next target will be the Hourly 200 MA, 10112, and then finally to break and hold above the Daily 200 MA.
For Bears, the line in the sand this week will be the Daily 200 MA. All of the key areas as aforementioned for Bulls will be shorting opportunities for Bears where risk can easily be defined and therefore limited.
So remember…
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