DAX Report – The week ahead – 4th April through to the 8th April 2016

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)

Monday 4th April

8:30am – ECB Praet Speaks

9.30am – UK construction PMI (March): expected to fall to 53.8 from 54.2.

10am – eurozone unemployment (February): expected to hold at 10.3%. 

10am – Eurozone PPI (YoY) -3.3% exp vs -2.9% prior ; (MoM) -0.5% vs -1% prior

 

Tuesday 5th April

5.30am – RBA rate decision & statement: rates expected to remain on hold at 2%.

7am – German Factory Orders (MoM) 0.3% exp vs -0.1% prior

8:30am – IMF President Lagarde speech

8:30am – Bundesbank Weidmann speech

8:55am – German Composite PMI (March) 54.1 exp vs 54.1 prior

8:55am – German Services PMI (March) 55.5 exp vs 55.3 prior

9am – Eurozone Composite PMI (March) 53.7 exp vs 53 prior

9am – Eurozone Services PMI (March) 54 exp vs 53.3 prior

9.30am – UK services PMI (March): expected to rise to 52.9 from 52.7. 

10am – Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.2% exp vs 0.4% prior

10am – Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.6% exp vs 2% prior

1pm – US trade balance (February): deficit forecast to narrow to $44.4 billion from $45.7 billion.

2.45pm – US Markit services PMI (March, final): no revision to current level of 50 expected.

3pm – US ISM non-mfg PMI (March): expected to rise to 54 from 53.4.

 

Wednesday 6th April

2.45am – China Caixin services PMI (March): forecast to fall to 50.9 from 51.2.

7am – German Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) -0.8% exp vs 3.3% prior

8:15am – ECB Nouy Speech

3.30pm – US EIA inventories: stockpiles expected to rise by 1.99 million barrels.

7pm – Fed minutes: the dovish take on the recent Fed meeting was amplified by Janet Yellen’s speech last week. 

 

Thursday 7th April

6am – Bank of Japan monthly report: this update on the Japanese economy could set the tone for yen crosses during the session.

7:30am – ECB Praet Speech

8am – ECB Constancio Speech

8am – ECB 2015 Annual Report 

9:30am – ECB Coeure Speech

12:30pm – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

3pm – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks

1.30pm – US initial jobless claims: expected to be 272K, down from 276K in preceding week.

 

Friday 8th April 

3am – China trade balance (March): surplus forecast to widen significantly to $43.9 billion from $32.6 billion.

7am – German Balance of Trade (Feb) €21.5 Bn exp vs €13.6 Bn

9.30am – UK trade balance, industrial & mfg production (February): trade deficit expected to widen to £3.9 billion from £3.5 billion. Industrial production to rise 0.5% YoY and mfg production to increase by 0.26% YoY.

1.30pm – Canada employment data (March): unemployment rate expected to hold at 7.3%, while the number of jobs increases by 4300 from a 2300 drop last month.

 

Last week saw Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls beat the headline number, but the unemployment rate rose to 5% from 4.9%. This means all eyes will be on Janet Yellen when she speaks this week.  On Thursday, expect some fireworks as we have a whole host of speeches and reports released from the ECB with special attention focused upon Mario Draghi who will be speaking at the ECB press conference. German trade balance is also out this week. It’s expected to show an even bigger surplus of around 21 billion.

Looking at a Weekly chart of the DAX below, one can see the market is rangebound for the last 3 weeks.  The Bears are keeping a cap on price closing above the 50% Fib Level(Nov15/Feb16) 10064 and the Bulls are stopping the Bears from breaking through and closing below the 38.2% Fib Level  – 9741.  A break and close beyond these levels in trading this week should give traders the necessary sign as to which way the market wants to go.  The market has also been in somewhat of a narrow trading range the last few weeks moving between 3-400 pips, with the average range over the last 3 months being 520 pips, so expect to see some big moves.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Weekly chart on the 4th April 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at a Daily chart of the DAX below, one can see price has been consolidating for the last 14 trading days.  Price has been rangebound between 9672 and 10116.  If we see either of these levels broken this week, the move will be quite explosive.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Daily chart on the 4th April 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull targets :-

  • 9924 – Weekly Pivot
  • 9926/9940 zone
  • Hourly 200 MA – Currently 9938
  • 9965/9970 zone
  • 10064
  • Daily 100MA – Currently 10078
  • 10090 – Weekly R1 Pivot
  • 10097
  • 10116
  • 10283 – Weekly R2 Pivot
  • Weekly 100MA – Currently 10324
  • Daily 200MA  – Currently 10367
  • 10387
  • 10449 – Weekly R3 Pivot

 

Bear Targets :-

  • 9795/9787 zone
  • 9777/9768 zone
  • 9731 – Weekly S1 Pivot
  • 9745/9720 zone
  • 9741
  • 9693/9672 zone
  • 9630/9612 zone
  • 9592
  • 9566 – Weekly S2 Pivot
  • 9396
  • 9373  Weekly S3 Pivot

 

For Bears, 10116 will be the line in the sand for this week, with preference being below the Hourly 200 MA.

For Bulls, the line in the sand will be 9672 with preference being above the Hourly 200 MA.

Good fortune in your trading for the week ahead!
And remember…

‘Define your risk to limit your risk to keep skin in the game!’
Dan Shiel
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TSR EMAIL LOGO 2  ___________________________________________________

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