ECONOMIC CALENDAR
(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)
Monday 11th April2.30am – China CPI (March): expected to be 2% YoY, down from previous 2.3%.
Tuesday 12th April
2.30am – Australia NAB business confidence (March): expected to be 3.55, from 3 in February
7am – German CPI : (YoY) (March) 0.3% exp vs 0.0% prior and (MoM) (March) 0.8% exp vs 0.4% prior
7am – German HICP : (YoY) (March) 0.1% exp vs -0.2% prior and (MoM) (March) 0.8% exp vs 0.4% prior
7am – German WPI : (YoY) (March) -1.6% exp vs -1.9% prior and (MoM) (March) -0.3% exp vs -0.5% prior
9.30am – UK CPI (March): YoY rate forecast to rise to 0.4% from 0.3%, while the core rate rises to 1.3% from 1.2%
Wednesday 13th April
ECB Nowotny speaks
1.30am – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (April): index forecast to drop to 97.3 from 99.1
3am – China trade balance (March): surplus expected to increase to $43.9 billion from $32.6 billion
10am – Eurozone Industrial Production : (YoY) (Feb) 1.3% exp vs 2.8% prior and (M0M) (Feb) -0.4% exp vs 2.1% prior
1.30pm – US retail sales (March): forecast to rise 0.25% MoM, from a 0.1% drop in February
3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to remain at 0.5%
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories: stockpiles expected to rise by 700,000, after falling for the first time in two months last week
7pm – US Beige Book: this survey of US industry helps markets to gauge whether respondents are positive or negative about the outlook for the US economy
11:15pm – ECB Constancio speaks
Thursday 14th April
2.30am – Australia employment data (March): unemployment rate forecast to rise to 6% from 5.8%, while the number of those in work goes up by 16,000.
10am – Eurozone CPI : (YoY) (March) -0.1% exp vs -0.2% prior and (MoM) (March) 0.4% exp vs 0.2% prior
10am – Eurozone Core CPI : (YoY) (March) 1% exp vs 0.8% prior
12pm – BoE interest rate decision: no change is expected in policy, while the current 9-0 vote in favour of holding rates is also expected to be the same. The key will be in the accompanying statement, which will likely provoke movement in sterling pairs.
1.30pm – US CPI (March): YoY rate forecast to remain at 1%, while the core rate falls to 2.2% from 2.3%
Friday 15th April
3am – China GDP figures (Q1): QoQ rate expected to be 1.4%, down from 1.6% in the previous quarter.
10am – eurozone trade balance (February): faorecast to see the surplus widen to €20.8 billion from €6.2 billion.
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (April): previous reading 90.67.Markets to watch: US indices, USD Crosses
This week sees plenty of releases with data out of China, U.K. and the Eurozone. China CPI on Monday and Q1 GDP data out on Friday. An important figure to watch, as it is a good barometer of global stability from the World’s second largest economy.
The Bank of England rate decision is on Thursday and Eurozone CPI and Trade Balance on Thursday & Friday respectively.
Last week, the DAX sold off after some mixed messages from central bankers, but mostly on Tuesday, which saw the Index tank after worse than expected data out of Germany. It saw a massive retraction in German factory orders MoM, with data coming out at -1.2% vs an expected 0.2% increase. The DAX seemed to base around 9500, briefly hitting a low of 9440 on Thursday.
Let’s look at a couple of weekly charts to start off with. The chart below shows how price has found a ceiling of resistance at 10114 which is the 38.2% Fib Level from the all time high 12407 back in April last year to the lows in February this year of 8696.
(click to enlarge)
The next weekly chart also shows a ceiling of resistance for Bulls close to the 10114, coming in at 10064 which is the 50% Fib Level from Nov15/Feb16.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at the Daily chart below, price has also found difficulty around the Daily 100 Moving Average (blue line in the chart below) with price failing to close above this level currently at 10003.
(click to enlarge)
Looking at the Hourly chart, one can see price has attempted to challenge the Hourly 100 MA on several occasions, but failed to move above. Last Friday price finally broke above the Hourly 100 MA, then broke back below, then closed above. This is a sign that the Bears are losing control. If price can hold above the Hourly 100 MA, the next target will be the Hourly 200 MA, green line in the chart below.
(click to enlarge)
Bull targets :-
- 9656 Weekly Pivot
- 9671
- 9741
- 9756
- Hourly 200 MA
- 9841
- 9870 Weekly R1 Pivot
- 9906
- 9926/9940 zone
- Daily 100 MA
- 10064
- 10116
- 10122 Weekly R2 Pivot
- Daily 200 MA
- Weekly 100 MA
- 10336 Weekly R3 Pivot
- 10387
Bear Targets :-
- 9405 Weekly S1 Pivot
- 9407 38.2% Fib (Feb16/March16)
- 9440
- 9378
- 9320
- 9239
- Weekly 200 MA
- 9190 Weekly S2 Pivot
- 8994
- 8939 Weekly S3 Pivot
- 8903
For Bulls, they need to stay above the Hourly 100 MA, then close above the Hourly 200 MA, then the Daily 100 MA, push above 10064, with final break of 10114 which would see the Bulls off to the races.
For Bears, price needs to take out 9440, then the 9378/9320 zone, then the Weekly 200 MA.
Good fortune in your trading for the week ahead – it shall be an interesting one to say the least!
And remember…
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