DAX Report – The week ahead – 18th April to the 22nd April 2016

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

(All times GMT) (DAX related highlighted Red)

Tuesday 18th April

10 am – German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey (April): Expected to rise slightly to 9.8, from 4.3 previously. 

2.30am – Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes (April): The central bank left its official cash rate at a record low 2% for a 10th consecutive meeting, but warned about a resurgent Aussie dollar. Now we’ll get the details. Governor Glenn Stevens also gives a speech at 14.30 pm.

Wednesday 19th April

12.50 am – Japan March trade balance (March): Expected to show a deficit of JPY74.64 billion compared with February’s JPY242.8 billion surplus.

7 am – German PPI : (MoM) (March) 0.2% exp vs -0.5% prior / (YoY) (March) -2.9% vs -3% prior

9.30 am – UK unemployment rate (February): Expected to remain the same at 5.1%.

9.30 am – UK Claimant count (March): Expected to rise to -10k, from -18k.

3.30 pm – EIA crude oil/gasoline stocks change (15 April): Crude stocks are expected to build by a further 0.6 million barrels, after falling for the first time in two months two weeks ago. Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by about 854,000 barrels.

Thursday 20th April

8.30 am – UK retail sales (March): Expected to rise 0.2% on the month and 3.5% on the year, compared with February’s 0.4% decline on month and 3.8% rise on year.

12.45 pm – ECB interest rate decision and press conference (1.30 pm): German finance chiefs are showing more angst over the ECB’s stimulus efforts, but the central bank got some good news in the form of steadying Eurozone prices last Thursday. The recent rise in oil prices can only be supportive to the ECB’s efforts to stave off the deflation threat and return inflation towards its target.

1 pm – SAP Q1 2016 Earnings Call

3.00 pm – Eurozone consumer confidence (April): Expected to decrease further to -10.3, from -9.7 in March and -8.8 in February. 

Friday 21st April

8.30 am – German flash Markit Manufacturing PMI (April): Expected to remain fairly stable at 50.8 compared with 50.7 in March. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. 

8:30 am – German services PMI (April) : 55 exp vs 55.1 prior

9.00 am – Eurozone Markit composite PMI (April): Expected to remain stable at 53.1, reflecting stability in both the manufacturing and services PMIs. 

1.30 pm – Canadian inflation (March): Expected to show deflation of 0.1% month-on-month, compared with the 0.2% inflation in February. Year-on-year figure expected to rise 1.9%, from 1.4% in February. It hit a 14-month high of 2% in January.

 

Looking at a Daily chart of the DAX below, one can see price managed to remain above the 50% Fib Level in trading last week, indicating a Bullish bias. It managed to break and hold above the Daily 100 Moving Average (blue line in the chart below), indicating a Bullish bias. However price failed to break or even reach the highs of 10116, keeping the Bears in control.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Daily chart on the 18th April 2016

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at an Hourly chart of the DAX below, one can see traders remembered the key 10116/10097 zone going back to the middle of last month and Bears stepped into the market with very easy to define risk with stops just above 10116.  This zone will be key for both Bears and Bulls this week as to where the predominant bias lies – Bullish above 10116 and Bearish below.

(click to enlarge)

panese candlestick chart of the DAX Hourly chart on the 18th April 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull targets :-

  • 10097
  • 10116
  • 10122 – Weekly R2 Pivot
  • 10131
  • Daily 200 MA
  • Weekly 100 MA
  • 10336 – Weekly R3 Pivot
  • 10387
  • 10401
  • 10561

Bear targets :-

  • Daily 100 MA
  • Hourly 100 MA
  • 9870 – Weekly R1 Pivot
  • 9841
  • Hourly 200 MA
  • 9756
  • 9671
  • 9656 – Weekly Pivot
  • 9612
  • 9440
  • 9404 – Weekly S1 Pivot
  • 9407
  • 9378

For Bulls this week, price needs to crack through the the 10116/10097 zone and hold above it.  If price rolls over, expect bounces into the Hourly 100 MA, Hourly 200 MA, 9440 with the final line in the sand being 9407.

For Bears this week, price needs to remain below the 10116/10097 zone and ideally get back below the Daily 100 MA with an aim to stay under that level.

Good fortune in your trading for the week ahead!

And remember…

‘Define your risk to limit your risk to keep skin in the game!’
Dan Shiel
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